On its face, the April 17 report issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was nothing short of alarming. According to a nationwide survey conducted in 2022 across 16 localities in the U.S., one in 31 children studied had been diagnosed with autism. That’s a significant increase from the one-in-36 reported in 2020, and a huge jump from the one-in-150 in 2000.

“The autism epidemic is running rampant,” declared Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), in a press release. “President Trump has tasked me with identifying the root causes of the childhood chronic disease epidemic—including autism. We are assembling teams of world-class scientists to focus research on the origins of the epidemic, and we expect to begin to have answers by September.”

But Kennedy has it wrong, say critics—and even the CDC itself. The increases seen in various communities, says the report, “might be due to differences in availability of services for early detection and evaluation and diagnostic practices…Another reason for differences in prevalence could be whether children have insurance coverage or meet eligibility criteria for access to early intervention services.”

That is in keeping with the position of experts, who have maintained for years that increases in autism cases are a mere function of better screening and a widening of the diagnostic criteria of what constitutes the condition. If you look for more autism—and, not insignificantly, have a better understanding of the signs—you’re going to find more.

“Most of the rise in autism is not a true rise of autism, but an increase in diagnosis and because of changes in diagnostic criteria,” says Dr. Peter Hotez, professor of pediatrics and molecular virology at Baylor College of Medicine, and co-director of the Texas Children's Hospital’s Center for Vaccine Development. “Also, starting in 2005, the American Academy of Pediatrics asked pediatricians to start doing autism screening at between one and two years of age. Additionally, we've provided access to autism services, so there's been incentive to get kids help.”