A 50% reciprocal trade tariff on Lesotho, the highest levy on U.S. President Donald Trump’s long list of target economies, will kill the tiny Southern African kingdom that Trump ridiculed last month, an economic analyst there said on Thursday.

Lesotho, which Trump described in March as a country “nobody has ever heard of,” is one of the world’s poorest nations with a gross domestic product of just over $2 billion.

It has a large trade surplus with the United States, mostly made up of diamonds and textiles, including Levi’s jeans. Its exports to the United States, which in 2024 totalled $237 million, account for more than 10% of its GDP.

Oxford Economics said the textile sector, with some 40,000 workers, was Lesotho’s biggest private employer and accounted for roughly 90% of manufacturing employment and exports.

“Then you are having retailers who are selling food. And then you have residential property owners who are renting houses for the workers. So this means if the closure of factories were to happen, the industry is going to die and there will be multiplier effects,” Lesotho Private Sector Foundation CEO Thabo Qhesi said.

“So Lesotho will be dead, so to say.”
Ridiculed for imposing trade tariffs on frozen islands largely inhabited by penguins, Donald Trump’s formula for calculating those levies has a serious side: it is also hitting some of the world’s poorest nations hardest.The math is simple: take the U.S. goods trade deficit with a country, divide it by that country’s exports to the U.S. and turn it into a percentage figure; then cut that figure in half to produce the U.S. “reciprocal” tariff, with a floor of 10%.

That’s how the volcanic Australian territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands in the Antarctic ended up with a 10% tariff. The penguins got off lightly, you might say.