Why Trump's rapidly changing economic policies are raising stagflation alarms

If there was one thing President Donald Trump was supposed to represent to many voters, it was the prospect of an upturn in their economic fortunes.

Yet, less than three months into his second administration, Americans are being asked to reset their expectations about the trajectory of the U.S. economy — in the near term and beyond.

Rather than reignite the economy, Trump’s unusual and unprecedented economic policies, like tariffs, tax cuts and spending reductions, are raising the specter of not only a recession, but also stagflation: sustained price increases, but no growth to go along with it.

It would be the worst of both worlds: Consumers get hit with higher costs alongside declining employment and wages.

Investors, not to mention electoral pollsters who were active in the 1970s, remain scarred by the stagflation that took root during that decade. It caused both inflation and unemployment to average around 6% for the decade, setting the stage for a period of economic “malaise” in America that helped cost Democratic President Jimmy Carter a second term in the White House.

The lackluster economic conditions lasted well into the first term of Carter’s opponent, Ronald Reagan. Indeed, at least one commentator is already positing an analogy between Reagan and Trump as two presidents who inherited flagging economies.

Charles Gasparino, a business columnist for the New York Post and a Fox News contributor, expressed the argument recently.

“Ignore the puke,” he wrote Monday, referring to the significant market sell-off over the past week or so.

Fiscal and monetary stimulus, he said, has become like “heroin” to the economy, Gasparino said. He compared the adjustment the United States is undergoing to the early years of Reagan’s presidency.