For economists, harbingers of a recession can include a slowdown in consumer spending and rising unemployment. For the chronically online, indicators can range from the perceived fall of fake eyelashes to more commercials for online colleges. Or, maybe, it’s a skin care company selling eggs. And for Sydney Brams, a Miami-based influencer and realtor, it’s a decline in prices on clothing resale platform Depop. “I was literally running to my parents and my boyfriend, and I’m like, ‘Look at this. Look, something is very wrong,’” Brams told CNBC after seeing some Depop sellers “come back to Earth,” as she described it. “I feel like Chicken Little.” Making a joke of so-called recession indicators in everyday life has gained traction in recent weeks as the stock market pullback and weak economic data raised anxiety around the health of the economy. This trend also underscores the uniquely sharp sense of financial dissatisfaction among America’s young adults. Many of today’s young adults experienced childhood during the Great Recession and came of age as the pandemic threw everything from in-person work to global supply chains out of orbit. Now, they’re concerned about what’s been deemed a white-collar job market slowdown and President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policies — the latter of which has battered financial markets in recent weeks. To be clear, when they share their favorite recession indicators, they’re kidding — but they don’t see the future path of the U.S. economy as a laughing matter. “It’s gallows humor,” said James Cohen, a digital culture expert and assistant professor of media studies at Queens College in New York. “This is very much a coping mechanism.” These omens can be found across popular social media platforms such as X, TikTok and Instagram. Some users see cultural preludes to a recession in, say, Lady Gaga releasing her latest album or the quality of the new season of HBO’s “The White Lotus.” Others chalk up social trends such as learning to play the harmonica or wearing more brown clothing as forewarnings of a financial downturn on the horizon. Just last week, several social media users saw a slam-dunk opportunity to employ variations of the joke when DoorDash announced a partnership with Klarna for users to finance food delivery orders. A spokesperson for Klarna acknowledged to NBC News that people needing to pay for meals on credit is “a bad indicator for society.” Some content creators have made the humor an entry point to share budget-friendly alternatives for everyday luxuries that may have to go if wallets are stretched. “We are heading into a recession. You need to learn how to do your nails at home,” TikTok user Celeste in DC (@celesteiacevedo) said in a video explaining how to use press-on nail kits as opposed to splurging at a salon. Declining confidence These jokes don’t exist in a vacuum. Closely followed data illustrates how this trend reflects a growing malaise among young people when it comes to the economy. At the start of 2024, 18-to-34-year-olds had the highest consumer sentiment reading of any age group tracked by the University of Michigan. The index of this group’s attitude toward the economy has since declined more than 6%, despite the other age cohorts’ ticking higher.

Chances that the U.S. is heading for a recession are close to 50-50, according to a Deutsche Bank survey that raises more questions about the direction of the U.S. economy. The probability of a downturn in growth over the next 12 months is about 43%, as set by the average view of 400 respondents during the period of March 17-20. Though unemployment remains low and most data points suggest continued if slowing growth, the survey results reinforce the message from sentiment surveys that consumers and business leaders are increasingly concerned that a slowdown or recession is a growing risk. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week acknowledged the worries but said he still sees the economy as “strong overall” featuring “significant progress toward our goals over the past two years.” Still, Powell and his colleagues at the two-day policy meeting that concluded Wednesday lowered their estimate for gross domestic product this year to just a 1.7% annualized gain. Excluding the Covid-induced retrenchment in 2020, that would be the worst growth rate since 2011. Additionally, Fed officials raised their outlook for core inflation to 2.8%, well above the central bank’s 2% goal, though they still expect to achieve that level by 2027. The combination of higher inflation and slower growth raise the specter of stagflation, a phenomenon not experienced since the early 1980s. Few economists see that era replicated in the current environment, though the probability is rising of a policy challenge where the Fed might have to choose between boosting growth and tamping down prices. Markets have been nervous in recent weeks about the prospects ahead. Bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital told CNBC a few days ago that he sees the chances of a recession at 50%-60%. Recommended Business News A man once sued by the SEC wins Trump crypto contest to have dinner with the president Autos Cadillac's EVs are attracting new buyers, including more customers trading in Teslas “The recent equity market correction was punctuated by the ‘uncertainty shock’ of ever-evolving tariff policy, with investors concerned it could morph into a slowdown or even recession,” Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday. “What’s really at the heart of the conundrum, however, is that the U.S. might be at risk for a bout of stagflation, where growth slows and inflation remains sticky.” Powell, though, doubted that a repeat of the previous bout of stagnation is in the cards. “I wouldn’t say we’re in a situation that’s remotely comparable to that is likely,” he said. Barclays analysts noted that “market-based measures are consistent with only a modest slowing in the economy,” though the firm expects a growth rate this year of just 0.7%, barely above the recession threshold. UCLA Anderson, a closely-watched and widely-cited forecasting center, recently turned heads with its first-ever “recession watch” call for the economy, based largely on concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Clement Bohr, an economist at the school, wrote that the downturn could come in a year or two though he said one is “entirely avoidable” should Trump scale back his tariff threats. “This Watch also serves as a warning to the current administration: be careful what you wish for because, if all your wishes come true, you could very well be the author of a deep recession. And it may not simply be a standard recession that is being chaperoned into existence, but a stagflation,” Bohr said.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he still sees interest rate cuts in the cards though risks are rising to that outlook. Speaking two days after he and his colleagues again voted to keep short-term rates steady, Goolsbee told CNBC that he’s been hearing more concerns from businesses in his region about the impact of tariffs and their potential to raise prices and slow growth. “When you got a lot of uncertainty, I do think you need to wait to see some of these things get cleared up on the policy side,” the central banker said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “I’m out talking to business people and civic leaders throughout this region, and there’s been a decided turn in these conversations over the last six weeks, of anxiety, of pausing, waiting on capital projects, capex, etc., until they figure out tariffs, other fiscal policy.” Nevertheless, Goolsbee said he still expects future rate cuts even if the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach for now as issues play out over President Donald Trump’s tariff plans as well as deregulation and tax cuts. “If we can continue to make progress on inflation over the long run, I believe that rates 12 to 18 months from now will be lower than where they are today,” he said. Speaking separately Friday morning, New York Fed President John Williams also noted the high level of uncertainty around decision-making and economic trends, particularly inflation. “Recent data — both hard and soft — are sending mixed signals. Measures of policy uncertainty have increased sharply in recent months,” Williams said during a speech in Nassau, the Bahamas. Recommended Business News A man once sued by the SEC wins Trump crypto contest to have dinner with the president Autos Cadillac's EVs are attracting new buyers, including more customers trading in Teslas Both policymakers voted with the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the short-term fed funds rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC noted that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased” and Chair Jerome Powell used the term “uncertainty” 10 times in his post-meeting news conference. One question that has come up in recent days has been whether the U.S. economy is headed toward stagflation, or slow growth and rising inflation. “Tariffs, raise prices and reduce output. So that’s a stagflationary impulse, which is different from saying this is stagflation,” Goolsbee said. “The unemployment rate is barely 4% and inflation is in the 2s. So the hard data that we start from is not the stagflation of the 1970s. It’s just the ... the uncomfortable environment is when it’s moving directionally the wrong way.” FOMC meeting participants kept their projections for two rate cuts through 2025. Markets, though, think the Fed will be more aggressive, pricing in the equivalent of three quarter percentage point reductions, according to CME Group data.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it was leaving interest rates unchanged — but warned of rising uncertainty about the direction of the economy, in part because of President Donald Trump's tariff agenda. The Fed said its key federal funds rate, which serves as a benchmark for interest rates throughout the economy, would remain at about 4.5%. Though it said current economic conditions were solid, the central bank lowered its forecast for gross domestic product, a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States, for the rest of the year, to 1.7%, down from 2.1% in December. It also warned that a key measure of inflation would now be closer to 3% than 2%. Eighteen of 19 policymakers now say there's increased risk that GDP will fall, compared with just five in December. Meanwhile, 11 policymakers say the unemployment rate could climb to as much as 4.5% this year, up from five previously. "Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased," the Fed's statement said. At a news conference after the statement was released, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the dynamic between Trump's tariffs and stronger near-term price growth wasn't totally clear given other trends in the economy. But the tariffs are certainly a factor in rising expectations that price hikes will accelerate, he said — though for now, firmer inflation would most likely be "transitory." “Inflation has started to move up now, we think, partly in response to tariffs, and there may be a delay in further progress in the course of this year,” he said. Stocks surged on the news — but bond purchases also increased, the latter reflecting concerns about growth prospects. Investors seek out bonds when they believe they can get better returns on them than other assets. “The Fed is as lost in the wilderness as the rest of us trying to decipher the continual shifts in economic policy from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,” Omair Sharif, managing director of Inflation Insights consultancy, said in a note to clients following Wednesday’s rate decision. A host of indicators, not to mention comments from Trump administration officials themselves, suggest that consumer spending and employers’ hiring are both slowing. After an initial burst of optimism upon Trump’s election, growth now looks to be more subdued. Meanwhile, federal workforce cuts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency have also raised concerns about pressure on local economies, not to mention the ability of newly jobless workers to receive unemployment assistance. Sweeping White House policy changes have already unnerved investors. Last week, the S&P 500 slipped into correction territory, marking a 10% drop from its latest peak, for the first time in three years.

As voters returned Donald Trump to the White House in November, many had the economy top of mind. Candidate Trump vowed to bring down prices right away and foresaw boom times for the market. That’s not the case nearly two months into the administration, however. Instead, markets turned south this week amid a slew of data showing the economy looking increasingly precarious — with federal cuts led by Elon Musk’s DOGE group heightening worries about the state of the job market and tariff threats adding to cost worries for inflation-weary shoppers. On Thursday, the S&P 500 benchmark plunged into correction territory, meaning it closed 10% below its most recent highs. It was its fourth negative week in a row — the time since such a streak occurred was last summer. The decline came as Trump ramped up his tariffs strategy, allowing duties on steel and aluminum to come into effect — and incurring retaliatory tariffs — while continuing to threaten higher levies on Canadian goods and bringing new tariff warnings for European champagne and wine imports. Stock prices largely reflect expectations about future earnings. And CEOs and analysts alike are suggesting U.S. consumers are undergoing a major reorientation of their outlook. “I do think it’s just a bit of an uncertain world out there right now,” Ed Stack, the chairman of Dick’s Sporting Goods, told CNBC this week when asked about the company’s expectation that its profits will be lower this year. “What’s going to happen from a tariff standpoint? You know, if tariffs are put in place and prices rise the way that they might, what’s going to happen with the consumer?” Trump vows he's 'not going to bend at all’ on tariffs despite stock market corrections 08:17 On Friday, the University of Michigan reported the year-ahead outlook business conditions fell to its lowest level ever. The survey’s readings for future inflation and unemployment, meanwhile, surged. Those results are part of a broader trend. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Monday, showed “notably” worsening outlooks for unemployment, consumers’ ability to make minimum debt payments, and credit access expectations, while the outlook for stocks a year from now fell to its lowest level since December 2023. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), which tends to lean more conservative, reported this week that its uncertainty index climbed to its second-highest recorded reading last month. “Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street, and for many reasons,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a statement. “Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall. Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality.” A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on the worsening outlook. But the president is showing no sign of abandoning his tariffs strategy, while members of his administration are now actively preparing the electorate for a potential downturn. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said this week that a recession would be “worth it” in order to get Trump’s economic policies in place while adding that it would be “Biden’s economy” until the fourth quarter. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said trade policy uncertainty would be “resolved” in early April and that the economy would “take off” in the second quarter.

If there was one thing President Donald Trump was supposed to represent to many voters, it was the prospect of an upturn in their economic fortunes. Yet, less than three months into his second administration, Americans are being asked to reset their expectations about the trajectory of the U.S. economy — in the near term and beyond. Rather than reignite the economy, Trump’s unusual and unprecedented economic policies, like tariffs, tax cuts and spending reductions, are raising the specter of not only a recession, but also stagflation: sustained price increases, but no growth to go along with it. It would be the worst of both worlds: Consumers get hit with higher costs alongside declining employment and wages. Investors, not to mention electoral pollsters who were active in the 1970s, remain scarred by the stagflation that took root during that decade. It caused both inflation and unemployment to average around 6% for the decade, setting the stage for a period of economic “malaise” in America that helped cost Democratic President Jimmy Carter a second term in the White House. The lackluster economic conditions lasted well into the first term of Carter’s opponent, Ronald Reagan. Indeed, at least one commentator is already positing an analogy between Reagan and Trump as two presidents who inherited flagging economies. Charles Gasparino, a business columnist for the New York Post and a Fox News contributor, expressed the argument recently. “Ignore the puke,” he wrote Monday, referring to the significant market sell-off over the past week or so. Fiscal and monetary stimulus, he said, has become like “heroin” to the economy, Gasparino said. He compared the adjustment the United States is undergoing to the early years of Reagan’s presidency.

Price growth cooled more than expected in February, a welcome sign for markets that have been spooked by the specter of persistent inflation, though evolving U.S. trade policies complicate the outlook. The consumer price index rose 2.8% in February from the year before, less than forecast and slower than the 3% annual rate in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Inflation climbed 0.2% from January to February, down from January's 0.4% monthly rate and beating expectations of 0.3%. The decline was led by a sharp decrease in airfares, which fell 4%, and new vehicle prices, down a modest 0.1%. Housing costs saw the smallest 12-month increase since December 2021, rising 4.2%. Egg prices were up 58% from a year earlier but have already begun falling this month. Stock futures initially surged on the report, then retreated. And demand for government Treasury bonds actually weakened despite the better-than-expected CPI reading. Analysts cautioned that the cooler inflation data isn't likely to spur the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its meeting next week. That means high borrowing costs for everything from auto loans to credit cards could stay put for a while — while also keeping a lid on any stock gains.

The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, the first negative reading since 2022, according to an initial measurement released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. The decline in gross domestic product was fueled by a massive surge in imports, while other parts of the U.S. economy showed signs of slowing. Consumer spending climbed 1.8%, the weakest pace since mid-2023. The report also showed inflation remained firm. Stocks were down for much of the day but finished higher. The GDP figures cover just the first three months of the year, and other data in the report shows business investment remained firm. Economists were expecting the GDP to have grown 0.4% for the first three months of 2025, compared with an increase of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The report is among the last data points to capture a snapshot of the U.S. economy before President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement sent shock waves around the world. More recent data has begun to capture some of that fallout. Earlier Wednesday, payroll processor ADP reported just 62,000 new roles added in April — well below both estimates. Meanwhile, many companies have lowered their forecasts for 2025 or have withdrawn their financial guidance entirely. The U.S. economy thus appears to be entering a period of instability — one that is largely self-inflicted. In a new interview with ABC News, Trump continued to downplay concerns about the economy, claiming he had signaled during his campaign that there would be a “transition period” as his policies took hold. “Well, they did sign up for it,” Trump countered. “This is what I campaigned on.” Many analysts are warning the economy is now undergoing a slow-motion swoon. Shipments to West Coast ports are plunging, while price increases are expected to begin eating into sales data and incomes as heightened uncertainty freezes investment. "A period of stagnation now likely lies ahead if the current set of tariffs is maintained, with recession the most likely outcome if the additional reciprocal tariffs are imposed in full in July," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note Wednesday. Following, the GDP report, stock markets saw heavy declines in opening selling. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump blamed former President Joe Biden for the weakness. "This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s," he wrote. "I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden 'Overhang.' This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!"In most circumstances, advanced economies like the U.S. try to aim for GDP of around 2% to 3% per quarter, adjusted for inflation. The U.S. has been doing slightly better than 2% for the past two years — and until Trump began his tariffs rollout, it was expected to have performed at about that pace. But shock over Trump’s tariffs has begun to rattle economic data. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit in merchandise unexpectedly widened in March to an all-time high as companies began ramping up imports to get ahead of Trump’s import duties. Having a large volume of imports that results in a trade deficit does not necessarily signal economic weakness, assuming the imports are balanced out by consumption and investment. Although the U.S. has been operating at historically wide trade deficits for many years, they have not substantially affected GDP performance. But the latest surge in imports likely swamped the ability of the rest of the economy to absorb them in the short term, something that would result in lower GDP. Still, the measurement does not reflect overall consumer and business performance, analysts with Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients. “It’s important to note that this reflects front-running and not current economic weakness,” they wrote. What about the rest of the economy? Analysts say consumption and investment likely slowed but did not reverse. “The story, in our view, is one of a US economy that exited the first quarter on solid footing,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said. Analysts with JP Morgan note that if Q1 GDP is unexpectedly weak, Q2 GDP could be unexpectedly strong. “If imports collapse in coming months, there will be a temporary bounceback in measured GDP in 2Q,” they wrote in a note. CORRECTION (May 1, 2025, 2:35 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated in a headline of the chart how the changes in GDP will be tracked. The chart has been updated using the percentage change in GDP from the previous quarter, not year over year.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting next week, despite some encouraging news on inflation. Although inflation receded last month, an escalating trade war threatens to cause prices to rise on a wide range of consumer goods going forward. “This is likely just the beginning with tariffs on Europe and universal ones to follow suit over the coming weeks,” Andrzej Skiba, head of U.S. fixed income at RBC Global Asset Management, said in an email. “This will be inflationary, and the Fed won’t likely be able to cut rates in this environment.” The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day. “Consumers are stretched and stressed,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. Once the federal funds rate comes down, consumers may see their borrowing costs decrease across a variety of consumer debt such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgages, making it cheaper to borrow money. But even with the Fed on the sidelines for now, households could see some relief. Already, rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards are edging lower. Still, these rates remain relatively elevated compared to recent highs, with credit card APRs down only slightly from an all-time record. Here’s a look at where consumer borrowing costs stand. Mortgages Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, rates have been trending lower for weeks. Recommended Business News A man once sued by the SEC wins Trump crypto contest to have dinner with the president Autos Cadillac's EVs are attracting new buyers, including more customers trading in Teslas Worries about a possible recession and increased uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariff plans have soured consumers’ outlook and dragged down rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. “The good news is that even though the Fed has taken its foot off the gas when it comes to rate cuts, mortgage rates have fallen,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.77%, down from 7.04% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate. Credit cards Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. But even though the central bank held rates at the last few meetings, the average annual percentage rate has moved lower too — it’s currently, down to 20.09%, from 20.27% at the start of the year, thanks to the lingering effects of last year’s rate cuts. “March was the sixth straight monthly decline, but the decreases have slowed as Fed rate cuts get further back in the rearview mirror,” Schulz said of credit card APRs. In the meantime, credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, is up 8.2% year over year, while nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans and student loans, is 3% higher, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest consumer credit report. Auto loans Although auto loan rates are fixed, those payments continue to grow because car prices are rising, in addition to pressure from trade policy uncertainty. “That’s troubling news for potential car buyers, who are already beset on all sides by high rates and high prices and also face the possibility of tariffs pushing car costs even higher,” Schulz said. However, auto loan rates have also backed down from recent highs. The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 7.42%, down from 7.53% in January, according to Bankrate. Student loans Federal student loan rates are fixed, as well, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil. Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note. Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index.

A measure of consumers’ short-term expectations has fallen to its lowest level in 12 years, ticking a figure that has historically signaled recessions ahead. The measure of the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions published by The Conference Board, a business membership group, fell 9.6 points from February to 65.2, the worst result since 2013 and well below the threshold of 80 that has historically augured negative growth for the economy. "Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a release. “Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.” The board said overall consumer confidence had declined for a fourth consecutive month in March and fell below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022. Stock market declines likely proved a significant role in the worsening outlook, it said; earlier this month, the S&P 500 entered correction territory — down 10% from its recent high — for the first time since 2022. Measures of consumer confidence and expectations have been declining across the board in recent weeks amid growing uncertainty about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs strategy and his attempts to downsize federal agencies. Last week, the University of Michigan said its confidence index had declined for the third-consecutive month in March; its future expectations index, meanwhile, fell to the lowest level since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. And the New York Federal Reserve said earlier this month that the share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now had climbed to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023. Consumers also remain concerned that inflation is not slowing. The Conference Board said median year-ahead inflation expectations climbed for the fourth-straight month to the highest level since May 2023 and noted that write-in responses to the survey “showed that inflation is still a major concern for consumers.” It also said that “worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs in particular are on the rise.” Recommended Business News A man once sued by the SEC wins Trump crypto contest to have dinner with the president Autos Cadillac's EVs are attracting new buyers, including more customers trading in Teslas The University of Michigan’s year-ahead inflation expectations also jumped to the highest reading since November 2022 in March and marked three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. Yet within the broad declines and concerns, evidence that different groups feel more uneasy than others emerges. The Conference Board said March’s declines were driven by older consumers, especially those who are at least 55 years old. By contrast, it said, confidence actually rose slightly among consumers under 35 thanks to an uptick in their assessments of the present situation. And the confidence among households earning more than $125,000 a year has continued to hold steady. And the University of Michigan’s survey continues to show profound divisions on ratings of the economy according to political affiliation. Among Democrats, expectations are now at their lowest levels on record, while Republicans maintain a much more favorable outlook. In fact, Republicans’ views of current conditions are now at their highest since August 2023. In an appearance on CNBC on Tuesday, Stephen Miran, current chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, dismissed the latest consumer confidence data, pointing to the influence of the deep political cleavages in survey responses while also highlighting more recent positive economic data like low layoffs, steady retail sales, and stable housing demand. “I just don’t think that there’s been a very strong correlation between the confidence data … and actual consumer spending in recent years,” Miran said. “And if … you go out in the street, people are going about their lives, you know, they’re getting their paychecks, they’re spending their paychecks. The economy is marching on ahead.”